Monday:
· 7am: -0.75! Not in my wildest expectations did I expect the Lord Chancellor to go to this level. There are going to be a lot of glum faces in the city today
· 7.30: Call Katie Wade (my CFO) from train. We will need to resubmit a new set of results to Lloyd's
· 8.30: Spend the morning with my exec team to draw up a plan of action. While we had already planned for some movement in Ogden we were not prepared for this extreme case. A rate shift of this scale is likely to result in a loss of £5-10bn across insurers. It's brutal but I remind everyone (and myself) that all insurers are in same boat
· Reinforce to everyone I see that ERS is in this market for the long haul, we're not going anywhere. We have done a lot over the last few years to transform the business and I'm not going to risk that now. However, this isn't the time to be a hero and second guess the market - the sensible approach is to increase our prices
· 4pm: Call Chairman and Aquiline (our owners) to update them. We have their unwavering support. Thank goodness our strategy is strong, clear and well communicated.
· 5pm: Email a note from myself to all our brokers advising that the day's announcement will mean rate increases are on the way. A tough message but I'd rather be on the front foot and transparent
· By the end of the day we have updated our price calculators and software house products – the team has worked hard.
Tuesday:
· AM: Woke up this morning feeling that brokers face a real challenge … it's the brokers that are going to have to explain to their customers why their premiums are going up again! Customers will be expecting their insurance to go down after all the noise about whiplash reforms
· Today I am due at our Swansea office. I go ahead with the trip as planned – I have every confidence in my exec team working well together
· On the journey can't stop myself from wondering who the first casualty will be
· Start to see announcements from Direct Line, Admiral and Ageas about the impact on their P&Ls - some big numbers
· My sales director Alex Hardy's team are busy contacting brokers – communication at this time on the phone and face to face is key
· PM: The Top 15 insurers head to meet Chancellor to discuss the rate change (NFI!)
· Katie confirms Lloyd's are not giving any leeway on reporting timetables – it's going to be tight
· 5pm: call with my exec team. Feedback from Alex is that brokers are telling us we are the first to react. Not sure if that's a good or bad thing – but glad we acted and our Board are supportive of our approach
· Confirmed new rates by product and builds started for deployment into IT Application – long night ahead
Wednesday:
· AM: Wake up thinking has the Chancellor created an insider market as not yet seen any comms from the prior day's meeting so make a couple of calls to people I know that did attend
· It sounds like everyone is as concerned as each other. Due process needs to be followed and the fastest way the Chancellor can make reform is to include this into the wider Prisons and Courts Bill. But the timetable for this is far from clear. My read from the ABI announcement is that it's hard to see a revision of the rate until the end of the year at best
· PM: I am reading a lot about how the change in the Ogden discount rate is akin to a natural catastrophe for insurers. WRONG! The Ogden discount rate is an on-going cost of production. The hit to insurers results this year is so big because it is the accumulation of all unsettled claims from past years. But if prices don't increase to offset the fall in the Ogden rate those losses will keep on coming
· Our Business Development team continue calling our brokers – some difficult conversations, but some really positive – it's never going to be good news. But we think we've called this one right.
Thursday:
· AM: The first casualty of Ogden. It's announced that CGICE, who provide capital to Hawkwell Underwriting are exiting UK motor. This is bittersweet as I have been talking for some time about the risk brokers take using non-rated insurers. But ultimately, it's peoples' jobs, brokers' reputations and customers' policies that get hit
· PM: Further refinements to our pricing model made
· It starts to filter through that from brokers that others are starting to put through rate similar to ours
· Liz Truss appears on Question Time. Insurance doesn't get discussed – wish I'd been in the audience!!
Friday:
· As I reflect on a tumultuous week – and following a walk-through of our offices, speaking with our underwriting and business development teams about their experiences of the week's events, I'm really impressed with how the teams at ERS have dealt with it. They have got behind the action we have needed to take and are taking this forward in their discussions. It's not easy but many tell me that brokers have respected the transparency and clarity regarding our rate approach
